China’s Exports Surge in March as US Importers Rush Orders, Imports Fall Amid Weak Demand

China saw a sharp rise in exports in March, driven by a rush of US importers placing orders ahead of “Liberation Day,” according to official data released on Monday. The nation’s exports surged 12.4% year-on-year, significantly exceeding economists’ expectations of 4.4% growth and well above the 2.3% increase recorded during January and February.

Meanwhile, imports fell by 4.3% annually in March, a deeper decline than the 2.0% drop forecast by analysts. Although this marks a slight improvement from the 8.5% fall in the first two months of the year, the decline reflects continued weakness in domestic demand.

As a result of the strong export performance and falling imports, China recorded a trade surplus of $102.6 billion in March—substantially higher than the anticipated $74.3 billion.

Julian Evans-Pritchard, an economist at Capital Economics, noted that the unexpected surge in exports is likely a result of manufacturers accelerating shipments to the US in anticipation of “Liberation Day.” However, he warned that this boost is unlikely to last. “We expect export volumes to decline in the coming months and possibly take years to recover to current levels,” he said.

China’s trade surplus with the US alone reached $27.6 billion in March, as exports to the country rose by 4.5%. ING economist Lynn Song remarked that Chinese exports remained resilient despite the early impact of tariffs. Still, with hefty tariffs of 145% set to take effect, she cautioned that next month’s figures could show a significant downturn.

The data underscores the volatile global trade environment and highlights the pressure on China’s export sector amid shifting geopolitical and economic dynamics.